A compartmental model for COVID-19 to assess effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions with emphasis on contact-based quarantine
Relative to the number of casualties, COVID-19 ranks among the ten most devastating plagues in history. The pandemic hit the South Asian nation of Bangladesh in early March 2020 and has greatly impacted the socio-economic status of the country. In this article, we propose a compartmental model for C...
Elmentve itt :
| Szerzők: | |
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| Dokumentumtípus: | Cikk |
| Megjelent: |
2023
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| Sorozat: | STUDIA UNIVERSITATIS BABES-BOLYAI MATHEMATICA
68 No. 3 |
| Tárgyszavak: | |
| doi: | 10.24193/subbmath.2023.3.15 |
| mtmt: | 34289023 |
| Online Access: | http://publicatio.bibl.u-szeged.hu/29628 |
| Tartalmi kivonat: | Relative to the number of casualties, COVID-19 ranks among the ten most devastating plagues in history. The pandemic hit the South Asian nation of Bangladesh in early March 2020 and has greatly impacted the socio-economic status of the country. In this article, we propose a compartmental model for COVID-19 dynamics, introducing a separate class for quarantined susceptibles, synonymous to isolation of individuals who have been exposed and are suspected of being infected. The current model assumes a perfect quarantine based on contact with infectious individuals. Numerical simulation is conducted to investigate the efficiency of disease control by segregating suspected individuals and other non-pharmaceutical interventions. In addition, we assort quantitatively the importance of parameters that influence the dynamics of the system. Fitting the system to the early phase of COVID-19 outbreaks in Bangladesh, by taking into account the cumulative number of cases with the data of the first 17-week period, the basic reproduction number is estimated as 1.69. |
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| Terjedelem/Fizikai jellemzők: | 679-697 |
| ISSN: | 0252-1938 |